Comparative Study on Predictive Mathematical Models for Risk Assessment of nCOVID-19 Pandemic in India

ABSTRACT

The entire world faced locked down scenario due to the outbreak of nCOVID-19 corona virus outbreak. The fast and relentless spread nCOVID-19 has basically segmented the populace only into three subclasses, namely susceptible, infected, and recovered compartments. Adapting the classical SIR-type epidemic modeling framework, the direct person-to-person contact transmission is taken as the direct route of transmission of nCOVID-19 pandemic. In this research, the authors have developed two models of the nation-wide trends of the outburst of the nCOVID-19 infection using an SIR model and also an ARIMA model. They have studied the quantile plots, regression residual plots and R pair plots of the dataset by simple supervised machine learning algorithms. This study compares both models and higher correlation of the developed models with reality which suggests the extent of accuracy of these models. The study also suggested some possible way-out to get rid of this situation by providing a trade-off between ‘flattening of the curve’ as well as less economic turbulence. The projections are intended to provide an action plan for the socioeconomic counter measures to alleviate COVID-19 in India. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.