Analysis and forecasting of confirmed, death, and recovered cases of COVID-19 infections in Nigeria: Implications for university administrators.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT The coronavirus (COVID-19) disease outbreak was a public health emergency of international concern which eventually evolved into a pandemic. Nigeria was locked down in March, 2020 as the country battled to contain the spread of the disease. By August 2020, phase-by-phase easing of the lockdown was commenced and university students will soon return for academic activities. This study undertakes some epidemiological analysis of the Nigerian COVID-19 data to help the government and university administrators make informed decisions on the safety of personnel and students.The COVID-19 data on confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered were obtained from the website of the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) from April 2, 2020 to August 24, 2020. The infection rate, prevalence, ratio, cause-specific death rate, and case recovery rate were used to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of the pandemic in Nigeria. Exponential smoothing was adopted in modeling the time series data and forecasting the pandemic in Nigeria up to January 31, 2021.The results indicated that the pandemic had infection rate of at most 3 infections per 1 million per day from April to August 2020. The death rate was 5 persons per 1 million during the period of study while recovery rate was 747 persons per 1000 infections. Analysis of forecast data showed steady but gradual decrease in the daily infection rate and death rate and substantial increase in the recovery rate, 975 recoveries per 1000 infections.In general, the epidemiological attributes of the pandemic from the original data and the forecast data indicated optimism in the decrease in the rate of infection and death in the future. Moreover, the infection rate, prevalence and death rate in January 2021 coincided with the predictions based on the analysis. Therefore, the Nigerian government is encouraged to allow universities in the country to reopen while university administrators set up the necessary protocols for strict adherence to safety measures.