Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador.
Int J Epidemiol
; 51(1): 54-62, 2022 02 18.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1356686
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe.METHODS:
We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods.RESULTS:
Between 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI) 35 762-36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups.CONCLUSIONS:
Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Ecuador
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Epidemiol
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Ije
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