A novel epidemiological scoring system for the prediction of mortality in COVID-19 patients.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg
; 116(5): 409-416, 2022 05 02.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1356713
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Most of the reported risk score models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality are based on the levels of inflammatory markers, comorbidities or various treatment modalities, and there is a paucity of risk score models based on clinical symptoms and comorbidities.METHODS:
To address this need, age, clinical symptoms and comorbidities were used to develop a COVID-19 scoring system (CSS) for early prediction of mortality in severe COVID-19 patients. The CSS was developed with scores ranging from 0 to 9. A higher score indicates higher risk with good discrimination quality presented by Mann Whitney U test and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).RESULTS:
Patient age of ≥60 y, cough, breathlessness, diabetes and any other comorbidity (with or without diabetes) are significant and independent risk factors for non-survival among COVID-19 patients. The CSS showed good sensitivity and specificity (i.e. 74.1% and 78.5% at CSS≥5, respectively), with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 82.8%, which was close to the diagnostic accuracy detected in the validation cohort (81.9%). In the validation cohort, high (8-9), medium (5-7) and low (0-4) CSS groups had 54.80%, 28.60% and 6.5% observed mortality, respectively, which was very close to the predicted mortality (62.40%, 27.60% and 5.2%, respectively, by scoring cohort).CONCLUSIONS:
The CSS shows a positive relationship between a higher score and proportion of mortality and, as its validation showed, it is useful for the prediction of risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients at an early stage, so that referral for triage and admission can be predetermined even before admission to hospital.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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