Independent Risk Factors for the Dynamic Development of COVID-19: A Retrospective Study.
Int J Gen Med
; 14: 4349-4367, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1360676
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To identify the risk factors for predicting the dynamic progression of COVID-19.METHODS:
A total of 2321 eligible patients were included in this study from February 4 to April 15, 2020. Two illness conditions, including mild/moderate (M/M) subtype to severe/critical (S/C) and S/C to fatality, were classified. Clinical message was collected and compared, respectively. Kaplan-Meier method, Cox regression model and risk score system were used to predict disease progression in S/C COVID-19.RESULTS:
A total of 112 of 1761 patients with M/M subtype were progressors (P) and 1649 non-progressors (NP). Increasing disease progression associated with higher levels of neutrophils count (HR=1.958, 95% CI=1.253-3.059, P=0.003), CK (HR=2.203, 95% CI=1.048-4.632, P=0.037), LDH (HR=3.309, 95% CI=2.083-5.256, P<0.001) and CRP (HR=2.575, 95% CI=1.638-4.049, P<0.001), and lower level of lymphocytes count (HR=1.549, 95% CI=1.018-2.355, P=0.041), as well as total lesion volume ratio greater than ≥10% (HR=2.286, 95% CI=1.451-3.601, P<0.001) on admission. In progression to fatality, 56 of the 672 S/C cases died and 616 survived. Increasing fatality associated with lower level of lymphocytes count (HR2.060, 95% CI1.000-4.242, P=0.050), higher levels of BUN (HR2.715, 95% CI1.539-4.790, P<0.001), CK-MB (HR3.412, 95% CI1.760-6.616, P<0.001), LDH (HR5.578, 95% CI2.317-13.427, P<0.001), and PT (HR3.619, 95% CI2.102-6.231, P<0.001). Furthermore, high risk of neutrophils count, lymphocytes count, CK, LDH, CRP, and total lesion volume ratio was powerfully correlated with the incidence of progression to S/C in patients with NS COVID-19 and high odds of lymphocytes count, BUN, CK-MB, LDH, and PT were significantly associated with death in patients with S/C COVID-19. In addition, the progression and mortality rates increased with increasing risk scores.CONCLUSION:
Elevated LDH level and lymphopenia were independent predictors for COVID-19 sustainable management in classifying non-severe patients who progressed to severe condition and identifying S/C patients who deteriorated to fatal outcomes as well. Total lesion volume ratio ≥10% may provide early predictive evidence with COVID-19 patients at high risk of developing into S/C to improve prognosis.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Gen Med
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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