Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2.
Science
; 373(6562): eabj7364, 2021 Sep 24.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1361961
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of "vaccine nationalism," we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low-access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid, equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Global Health
/
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Science.abj7364
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