A data driven agent-based model that recommends non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress Coronavirus disease 2019 resurgence in megacities.
J R Soc Interface
; 18(181): 20210112, 2021 08.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1371777
ABSTRACT
Before herd immunity against Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is achieved by mass vaccination, science-based guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions are urgently needed to reopen megacities. This study integrated massive mobile phone tracking records, census data and building characteristics into a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 spread among 11.2 million individuals living in Shenzhen City, China. After validation by local epidemiological observations, the model was used to assess the probability of COVID-19 resurgence if sporadic cases occurred in a fully reopened city. Combined scenarios of three critical non-pharmaceutical interventions (contact tracing, mask wearing and prompt testing) were assessed at various levels of public compliance. Our results show a greater than 50% chance of disease resurgence if the city reopened without contact tracing. However, tracing household contacts, in combination with mandatory mask use and prompt testing, could suppress the probability of resurgence under 5% within four weeks. If household contact tracing could be expanded to work/class group members, the COVID resurgence could be avoided if 80% of the population wear facemasks and 40% comply with prompt testing. Our assessment, including modelling for different scenarios, helps public health practitioners tailor interventions within Shenzhen City and other world megacities under a variety of suppression timelines, risk tolerance, healthcare capacity and public compliance.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Disease Control
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J R Soc Interface
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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