Mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks in workplaces and schools by hybrid telecommuting.
PLoS Comput Biol
; 17(8): e1009264, 2021 08.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1374131
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 epidemic has forced most countries to impose contact-limiting restrictions at workplaces, universities, schools, and more broadly in our societies. Yet, the effectiveness of these unprecedented interventions in containing the virus spread remain largely unquantified. Here, we develop a simulation study to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks on three real-life contact networks stemming from a workplace, a primary school and a high school in France. Our study provides a fine-grained analysis of the impact of contact-limiting strategies at workplaces, schools and high schools, including (1) Rotating strategies, in which workers are evenly split into two shifts that alternate on a daily or weekly basis; and (2) On-Off strategies, where the whole group alternates periods of normal work interactions with complete telecommuting. We model epidemics spread in these different setups using a stochastic discrete-time agent-based transmission model that includes the coronavirus most salient features super-spreaders, infectious asymptomatic individuals, and pre-symptomatic infectious periods. Our study yields clear results:
the ranking of the strategies, based on their ability to mitigate epidemic propagation in the network from a first index case, is the same for all network topologies (workplace, primary school and high school). Namely, from best to worst Rotating week-by-week, Rotating day-by-day, On-Off week-by-week, and On-Off day-by-day. Moreover, our results show that below a certain threshold for the original local reproduction number [Formula see text] within the network (< 1.52 for primary schools, < 1.30 for the workplace, < 1.38 for the high school, and < 1.55 for the random graph), all four strategies efficiently control outbreak by decreasing effective local reproduction number to [Formula see text] < 1. These results can provide guidance for public health decisions related to telecommuting.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Disease Outbreaks
/
Teleworking
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS Comput Biol
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Medical Informatics
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pcbi.1009264
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