Food Insecurity Pre- and Post the COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Crisis in Lebanon: Prevalence and Projections.

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had serious repercussions on the global economy, work force, and food systems. In Lebanon, the pandemic overlapped with an economic crisis, which threatened to exacerbate food insecurity (FI). The present study aims to evaluate the trends and projections of FI in Lebanon due to overlapping health and economic crises. Data from Gallup World Poll (GWP) 2015-2017 surveys conducted in Lebanon on nationally representative adults (n = 3000) were used to assess FI trends and explore its sociodemographic correlates. Predictive models were performed to forecast trends in FI (2018-2022), using GWP data along with income reduction scenarios to estimate the impact of the pandemic and economic crises. Pre crises, trend analyses showed that FI could reach 27% considering wave year and income. Post crises, FI was estimated to reach on average 36% to 39%, considering 50-70% income reduction scenarios among Lebanese population. FI projections are expected to be higher among females compared to males and among older adults compared to younger ones (p < 0.05). These alarming findings call for emergency food security policies and evidence-based programs to mitigate the burden of multiple crises on the FI of Lebanese households and promote resilience for future shocks.