Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic.
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess
; 36(1): 137-155, 2022.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1375642
ABSTRACT
We propose a way to model the underdetection of infected and removed individuals in a compartmental model for estimating the COVID-19 epidemic. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse data from the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. We find that a correct assessment of the amount of underdetection is important to obtain reliable estimates of the critical model parameters. The adaptation of the model in each time interval between relevant government decrees implementing contagion mitigation measures provides short-term predictions and a continuously updated assessment of the basic reproduction number.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S00477-021-02081-2
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