COVID-19 and the flu: data simulations and computational modelling to guide public health strategies.
Fam Pract
; 38(Suppl 1): i16-i22, 2021 Aug 27.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1376298
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Pandemics threaten lives and economies. This article addresses the global threat of the anticipated overlap of COVID-19 with seasonal-influenza.OBJECTIVES:
Scientific evidence based on simulation methodology is presented to reveal the impact of a dual outbreak, with scenarios intended for propagation analysis. This article aims at researchers, clinicians of family medicine, general practice and policy-makers worldwide. The implications for the clinical practice of primary health care are discussed. Current research is an effort to explore new directions in epidemiology and health services delivery.METHODS:
Projections consisted of machine learning, dynamic modelling algorithms and whole simulations. Input data consisted of global indicators of infectious diseases. Four simulations were run for '20% versus 60% flu-vaccinated populations' and '10 versus 20 personal contacts'. Outputs consisted of numerical values and mathematical graphs. Outputs consisted of numbers for 'never infected', 'vaccinated', 'infected/recovered', 'symptomatic/asymptomatic' and 'deceased' individuals. Peaks, percentages, R0, durations are reported.RESULTS:
The best-case scenario was one with a higher flu-vaccination rate and fewer contacts. The reverse generated the worst outcomes, likely to disrupt the provision of vital community services. Both measures were proven effective; however, results demonstrated that 'increasing flu-vaccination rates' is a more powerful strategy than 'limiting social contacts'.CONCLUSIONS:
Results support two affordable preventivemeasures:
(i) to globally increase influenza-vaccination rates, (ii) to limit the number of personal contacts during outbreaks. The authors endorse changing practices and research incentives towards multidisciplinary collaborations. The urgency of the situation is a call for international health policy to promote interdisciplinary modern technologies in public health engineering.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Public Health Practice
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Global Health
/
Influenza, Human
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Fam Pract
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fampra
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