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Dynamical Variations of the Global COVID-19 Pandemic Based on a SEICR Disease Model: A New Approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu.
Wang, Xia; Yin, Gang; Hu, Zengyun; He, Daihai; Cui, Qianqian; Feng, Xiaomei; Teng, Zhidong; Hu, Qi; Li, Jiansen; Zhou, Qiming.
  • Wang X; School of Mathematics and Information Science Shaanxi Normal University Xian China.
  • Yin G; College of Resource and Environment Science Xinjiang University Urumqi China.
  • Hu Z; State Key Laboratory of desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China.
  • He D; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China.
  • Cui Q; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China.
  • Feng X; Department of Applied Mathematics Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong SAR China.
  • Teng Z; School of Mathematics and Statistics Ningxia University Yinchuan China.
  • Hu Q; School of Mathematics and Informational Technology Yuncheng University Yuncheng China.
  • Li J; College of Mathematics and System Sciences Xinjiang University Urumqi China.
  • Zhou Q; School of Natural Resources and Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of Nebraska Lincoln Lincoln NE USA.
Geohealth ; 5(8): e2021GH000455, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1387167
ABSTRACT
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 150 million cases of infection to date and poses a serious threat to global public health. In this study, global COVID-19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact of 84 countries across the five climate regions tropical, arid, temperate, and cold. A new approach named Yi Hua Jie Mu is proposed to obtain the transmission rates based on the COVID-19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1-2 years. Moreover, based on the simulated results by the COVID-19 data, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID-19. The role of the climate on the COVID-19 variations should be concluded with more data and more cautions. The non-pharmaceutical interventions still play the key role in controlling and prevention this global pandemic.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Geohealth Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Geohealth Year: 2021 Document Type: Article