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SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy.
Giovanetti, Marta; Cella, Eleonora; Benedetti, Francesca; Rife Magalis, Brittany; Fonseca, Vagner; Fabris, Silvia; Campisi, Giovanni; Ciccozzi, Alessandra; Angeletti, Silvia; Borsetti, Alessandra; Tambone, Vittoradolfo; Sagnelli, Caterina; Pascarella, Stefano; Riva, Alberto; Ceccarelli, Giancarlo; Marcello, Alessandro; Azarian, Taj; Wilkinson, Eduan; de Oliveira, Tulio; Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior; Cauda, Roberto; Caruso, Arnaldo; Dean, Natalie E; Browne, Cameron; Lourenco, Jose; Salemi, Marco; Zella, Davide; Ciccozzi, Massimo.
  • Giovanetti M; Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
  • Cella E; Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Benedetti F; Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy.
  • Rife Magalis B; Burnett School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA.
  • Fonseca V; Institute of Human Virology and Global Virus Network Center, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Fabris S; Emerging Pathogens Institute & Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Campisi G; Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Ciccozzi A; KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
  • Angeletti S; Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública/Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, (CGLAB/SVS-MS) Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil.
  • Borsetti A; Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy.
  • Tambone V; Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, Section of Microbiology, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
  • Sagnelli C; Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy.
  • Pascarella S; Unit of Clinical Laboratory Science, University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome, Rome, Italy.
  • Riva A; National HIV/AIDS Researh Center, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
  • Ceccarelli G; Anthropology, and Applied Ethics, Campus Bio-Medico University, Rome, Italy.
  • Marcello A; Department of Mental Health and Public Medicine, University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli", Naples, Italy.
  • Azarian T; Department of Biochemical Sciences "A. Rossi Fanelli", University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy.
  • Wilkinson E; ICBR, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • de Oliveira T; Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Policlinico Umberto I Università 'Sapienza', Rome, Italy.
  • Alcantara LCJ; Laboratory of Molecular Virology, International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB), Trieste, Italy.
  • Cauda R; Burnett School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA.
  • Caruso A; KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
  • Dean NE; KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
  • Browne C; Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
  • Lourenco J; Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Salemi M; Department Infectious Diseases, - Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "A. Gemelli" IRCCS, Rome, Italy.
  • Zella D; Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, Section of Microbiology, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
  • Ciccozzi M; Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Commun Biol ; 4(1): 489, 2021 04 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1387493
Preprint
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ABSTRACT
We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Communicable Disease Control / Public Health / Genome, Viral / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Mutation Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Commun Biol Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S42003-021-02025-0

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Communicable Disease Control / Public Health / Genome, Viral / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Mutation Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Commun Biol Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S42003-021-02025-0