SIR model-based verification of effect of COVID-19 Contact-Confirming Application (COCOA) on reducing infectors in Japan.

ABSTRACT

As of April 2021, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to spread in Japan. To overcome COVID-19, the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare of the Japanese government developed and released the COVID-19 Contact-Confirming Application (COCOA) on June 19, 2020. COCOA users can know whether they have come into contact with infectors. If persons who receive a contact notification through COCOA undertake self-quarantine, the number of infectors in Japan will decrease. However, the effectiveness of COCOA in reducing the number of infectors depends on the usage rate of COCOA, the rate of fulfillment of contact condition, the rate of undergoing the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, the false negative rate of the RT-PCR test, the rate of infection registration, and the self-quarantine rate. Therefore, we developed a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to estimate the effectiveness of COCOA. In this paper, we introduce the SIR model and report the simulation results for different scenarios that were assumed for Japan.