Accounting for Imported Cases in Estimating the Time-Varying Reproductive Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hong Kong.
J Infect Dis
; 224(5): 783-787, 2021 09 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1393268
ABSTRACT
Estimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated Rt for local cases rose above 1 in late March 2020, which was undetected by other commonly used methods. When imported cases account for a considerable proportion of all cases, their impact on estimating Rt is critical.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Infect Dis
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Infdis
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