Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
Sci Total Environ
; 728: 138890, 2020 Aug 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-139423
ABSTRACT
A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 °C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect meta-analysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = -0.0100, 95% CI -0.0125, -0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) and Wuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Temperature
/
Coronavirus Infections
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
/
Reviews
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Total Environ
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.scitotenv.2020.138890
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