Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan.
PLoS One
; 16(9): e0257107, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1394556
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Due to COVID-19, many countries including Japan have implemented a suspension of economic activities for infection control. It has contributed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 but caused severe economic losses. Today, several promising vaccines have been developed and are already being distributed in some countries. Therefore, we evaluated various vaccine and intensive countermeasure strategies with constraint of economic loss using SEIR model to obtain knowledge of how to balance economy with infection control in Japan. Our main results were that the vaccination strategy that prioritized younger generation was better in terms of deaths when a linear relationship between lockdown intensity and acceptable economic loss was assumed. On the other hand, when a non-linearity relationship was introduced, implying that the strong lockdown with small economic loss was possible, the old first strategies were best in the settings of small basic reproduction number. These results indicated a high potential of remote work when prioritizing vaccination for the old generation. When focusing on only the old first strategies as the Japanese government has decided to do, the strategy vaccinating the young next to the old was superior to the others when a non-linear relationship was assumed due to sufficient reduction of contact with small economic loss.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Algorithms
/
Vaccination
/
Infection Control
/
Models, Economic
/
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
/
Young adult
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0257107
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