Impact of level five lockdown on the incidence of COVID-19: lessons learned from South Africa.
Pan Afr Med J
; 39: 144, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1395296
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
the level five (L5) lockdown was a very stringent social distancing measure taken to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections. This study assessed the impact of the L5 lockdown and its association with the incidence of COVID-19 cases in South Africa (SA).METHODS:
data was obtained from the National Department of Health (NDoH) from the 5th March to the 30th April 2020. A basic reproductive number (R0) and a serial interval were used to calculate estimated cases (EC). A double exponential smoothing model was used to forecast the number of cases during the L5 lockdown period. A Poisson regression model was fitted to describe the association between L5 lockdown status and incident cases.RESULTS:
a total of 5,737 laboratory-confirmed cases (LCC) were reported by 30th April 2020, 4,785 (83%) occurred during L5 lockdown. Our model forecasted 30,629 cases of COVID-19 assuming L5 lockdown was not imposed. High incidence rates of COVID-19 were recorded in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga Provinces during the L5 lockdown compared to the other provinces. Nationally, the incident rate of COVID-19 was 68.00% higher in L5 lockdown than pre-lockdown for LCC.CONCLUSION:
the L5 lockdown was very effective in reducing the incidence of COVID-19 cases. However, the incident rates of LCC and EC were higher nationally, and in some provinces during the L5 lockdown.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Physical Distancing
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
Language:
English
Journal:
Pan Afr Med J
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Pamj.2021.39.144.28201
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