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Measuring the impact of suspending Umrah, a global mass gathering in Saudi Arabia on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Alshammari, Sultanah M; Almutiry, Waleed K; Gwalani, Harsha; Algarni, Saeed M; Saeedi, Kawther.
  • Alshammari SM; Department of Computer Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
  • Almutiry WK; Department of Mathematics, College of Arts and Science in Ar Rass, Qassim University, Qassim, Saudi Arabia.
  • Gwalani H; Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, TX USA.
  • Algarni SM; Saudi Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
  • Saeedi K; Department of Information Systems, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Comput Math Organ Theory ; : 1-26, 2021 Sep 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1401045
ABSTRACT
Since the early days of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, Saudi Arabia started to implement several preventative measures starting with the imposition of travel restrictions to and from China. Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, and with the first confirmed case in Saudi Arabia in March 2019, more strict measures, such as international travel restriction, and suspension or cancellation of major events, social gatherings, prayers at mosques, and sports competitions, were employed. These non-pharmaceutical interventions aim to reduce the extent of the epidemic due to the implications of international travel and mass gatherings on the increase in the number of new cases locally and globally. Since this ongoing outbreak is the first of its kind in the modern world, the impact of suspending mass gatherings on the outbreak is unknown and difficult to measure. We use a stratified SEIR epidemic model to evaluate the impact of Umrah, a global Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the month of Ramadan, the peak of the Umrah season. The analyses shown in the paper provide insights into the effects of global mass gatherings such as Hajj and Umrah on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies Language: English Journal: Comput Math Organ Theory Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S10588-021-09343-y

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies Language: English Journal: Comput Math Organ Theory Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S10588-021-09343-y