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The Impact of Cocirculating Pathogens on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)/Coronavirus Disease 2019 Surveillance: How Concurrent Epidemics May Introduce Bias and Decrease the Observed SARS-CoV-2 Percentage Positivity.
Kovacevic, Aleksandra; Eggo, Rosalind M; Baguelin, Marc; Domenech de Cellès, Matthieu; Opatowski, Lulla.
  • Kovacevic A; Epidemiology and Modelling of Antibiotic Evasion, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.
  • Eggo RM; Anti-infective Evasion and Pharmacoepidemiology Team, CESP, Université Paris-Saclay, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, INSERM U1018 Montigny-le-Bretonneux, France.
  • Baguelin M; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
  • Domenech de Cellès M; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
  • Opatowski L; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
J Infect Dis ; 225(2): 199-207, 2022 01 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1634219
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Circulation of seasonal non-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) respiratory viruses with syndromic overlap during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may alter the quality of COVID-19 surveillance, with possible consequences for real-time analysis and delay in implementation of control measures.

METHODS:

Using a multipathogen susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model formalizing cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and another respiratory virus, we assessed how an outbreak of secondary virus may affect 2 COVID-19 surveillance indicators testing demand and positivity. Using simulation, we assessed to what extent the use of multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests on a subsample of symptomatic individuals can help correct the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity and improve surveillance quality.

RESULTS:

We find that a non-SARS-CoV-2 epidemic strongly increases SARS-CoV-2 daily testing demand and artificially reduces the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity for the duration of the outbreak. We estimate that performing 1 multiplex test for every 1000 COVID-19 tests on symptomatic individuals could be sufficient to maintain surveillance of other respiratory viruses in the population and correct the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study showed that cocirculating respiratory viruses can distort SARS-CoV-2 surveillance. Correction of the positivity rate can be achieved by using multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests, and a low number of samples is sufficient to avoid bias in SARS-CoV-2 surveillance.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Respiratory System / Respiratory Tract Infections / Coinfection / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: J Infect Dis Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Infdis

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Respiratory System / Respiratory Tract Infections / Coinfection / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: J Infect Dis Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Infdis