The Impact of Cocirculating Pathogens on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)/Coronavirus Disease 2019 Surveillance: How Concurrent Epidemics May Introduce Bias and Decrease the Observed SARS-CoV-2 Percentage Positivity.
J Infect Dis
; 225(2): 199-207, 2022 01 18.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1634219
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Circulation of seasonal non-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) respiratory viruses with syndromic overlap during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may alter the quality of COVID-19 surveillance, with possible consequences for real-time analysis and delay in implementation of control measures.METHODS:
Using a multipathogen susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model formalizing cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and another respiratory virus, we assessed how an outbreak of secondary virus may affect 2 COVID-19 surveillance indicators testing demand and positivity. Using simulation, we assessed to what extent the use of multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests on a subsample of symptomatic individuals can help correct the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity and improve surveillance quality.RESULTS:
We find that a non-SARS-CoV-2 epidemic strongly increases SARS-CoV-2 daily testing demand and artificially reduces the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity for the duration of the outbreak. We estimate that performing 1 multiplex test for every 1000 COVID-19 tests on symptomatic individuals could be sufficient to maintain surveillance of other respiratory viruses in the population and correct the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity.CONCLUSIONS:
This study showed that cocirculating respiratory viruses can distort SARS-CoV-2 surveillance. Correction of the positivity rate can be achieved by using multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests, and a low number of samples is sufficient to avoid bias in SARS-CoV-2 surveillance.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Respiratory System
/
Respiratory Tract Infections
/
Coinfection
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
J Infect Dis
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Infdis
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