Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 18339, 2021 09 15.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1411815
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Plateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from highly precise measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater over nine months in several treatment plants around the Thau lagoon in France. Among various features, we observe that the concentration displays plateaus at different dates in various locations but at the same level. In order to understand these facts, we introduce a new mathematical model that takes into account the heterogeneity and the natural variability of individual behaviours. Our model shows that the distribution of risky behaviours appears as the key ingredient for understanding the observed temporal patterns of epidemics.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Wastewater
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-021-97077-x
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