Development and Validation of a Multivariable Risk Prediction Model for COVID-19 Mortality in the Southern United States.
Mayo Clin Proc
; 96(12): 3030-3041, 2021 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1415644
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate clinical characteristics of patients admitted to the hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Southern United States and development as well as validation of a mortality risk prediction model. PATIENTS ANDMETHODS:
Southern Louisiana was an early hotspot during the pandemic, which provided a large collection of clinical data on inpatients with COVID-19. We designed a risk stratification model to assess the mortality risk for patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19. Data from 1673 consecutive patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection and hospitalized between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2020, was used to create an 11-factor mortality risk model based on baseline comorbidity, organ injury, and laboratory results. The risk model was validated using a subsequent cohort of 2067 consecutive hospitalized patients admitted between June 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020.RESULTS:
The resultant model has an area under the curve of 0.783 (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.81), with an optimal sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.69 for predicting mortality. Validation of this model in a subsequent cohort of 2067 consecutively hospitalized patients yielded comparable prognostic performance.CONCLUSION:
We have developed an easy-to-use, robust model for systematically evaluating patients presenting to acute care settings with COVID-19 infection.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Proportional Hazards Models
/
Risk Assessment
/
COVID-19
/
Hospitalization
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Mayo Clin Proc
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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