Network assessment and modeling the management of an epidemic on a college campus with testing, contact tracing, and masking.

ABSTRACT

There remains a great challenge to minimize the spread of epidemics, especially in high-density communities such as colleges and universities. This is particularly true on densely populated, residential college campuses. To construct class and residential networks data from a four-year, residential liberal arts college with 5539 students were obtained from SUNY College at Geneseo, a rural, residential, undergraduate institution in western NY, USA. Equal-sized random networks also were created for each day. Different levels of compliance with mask use (none to 100%), mask efficacy (50% to 100%), and testing frequency (daily, or every 2, 3, 7, 14, 28, or 105 days) were assessed. Tests were assumed to be only 90% accurate and positive results were used to isolate individuals. The effectiveness of contact tracing, and the effect of quarantining neighbors of infectious individuals, was tested. The structure of the college course enrollment and residence networks greatly influenced the dynamics of the epidemics, as compared to the random networks. In particular, average path lengths were longer in the college networks compared to random networks. Students in larger majors generally had shorter average path lengths than students in smaller majors. Average transitivity (clustering) was lower on days when students most frequently were in class (MWF). Degree distributions were generally large and right skewed, ranging from 0 to 719. Simulations began by inoculating twenty students (10 exposed and 10 infectious) with SARS-CoV-2 on the first day of the fall semester and ended once the disease was cleared. Transmission probability was calculated based on an R0 = 2.4. Without interventions epidemics resulted in most students becoming infected and lasted into the second semester. On average students in the college networks experienced fewer infections, shorter duration, and lower epidemic peaks when compared to the dynamics on equal-sized random networks. The most important factors in reducing case numbers were the proportion masking and the frequency of testing, followed by contact tracing and mask efficacy. The paper discusses further high-order interactions and other implications of non-pharmaceutical interventions for disease transmission on a residential college campus.