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COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in the Subcontinent: A Data Driven Analysis.
Singh, Bikash Chandra; Alom, Zulfikar; Hu, Haibo; Rahman, Mohammad Muntasir; Baowaly, Mrinal Kanti; Aung, Zeyar; Azim, Mohammad Abdul; Moni, Mohammad Ali.
  • Singh BC; Department of Information and Communication Technology, Islamic University, Kushtia 7003, Bangladesh.
  • Alom Z; Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong.
  • Hu H; Department of Computer Science, Asian University for Women (AUW), Chattagram 4000, Bangladesh.
  • Rahman MM; Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong.
  • Baowaly MK; Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Islamic University, Kushtia 7003, Bangladesh.
  • Aung Z; Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj 8100, Bangladesh.
  • Azim MA; Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi 127788, United Arab Emirates.
  • Moni MA; Department of Computer Science, Asian University for Women (AUW), Chattagram 4000, Bangladesh.
J Pers Med ; 11(9)2021 Sep 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1417165
ABSTRACT
Human civilization is experiencing a critical situation that presents itself for a new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This virus emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan city, Hubei, China. The grim fact of COVID-19 is, it is highly contagious in nature, therefore, spreads rapidly all over the world and causes severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Responding to the severity of COVID-19 research community directs the attention to the analysis of COVID-19, to diminish its antagonistic impact towards society. Numerous studies claim that the subcontinent, i.e., Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, could remain in the worst affected region by the COVID-19. In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it is important to predict the trend of COVID-19 beforehand the planning of effective control strategies. Fundamentally, the idea is to dependably estimate the reproduction number to judge the spread rate of COVID-19 in a particular region. Consequently, this paper uses publicly available epidemiological data of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan to estimate the reproduction numbers. More specifically, we use various models (for example, susceptible infection recovery (SIR), exponential growth (EG), sequential Bayesian (SB), maximum likelihood (ML) and time dependent (TD)) to estimate the reproduction numbers and observe the model fitness in the corresponding data set. Experimental results show that the reproduction numbers produced by these models are greater than 1.2 (approximately) indicates that COVID-19 is gradually spreading in the subcontinent.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Jpm11090889

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Jpm11090889