Prediction on transmission trajectory of COVID-19 based on particle swarm algorithm.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to predict the transmission trajectory of the 2019 Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was combined with the traditional susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) infectious disease prediction model to propose a SEIR-PSO prediction model on the COVID-19. In addition, the domestic epidemic data from February 25, 2020 to March 20, 2020 in China were selected as the training set for analysis. The results showed that when the conversion rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate of the SEIR-PSO model were 1/5, 1/15, and 1/13, its predictive effect on the number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 was the closest to the real data; and the SEIR-PSO model showed a mean-square errors (MSE) value of 1304.35 and mean absolute error (MAE) value of 1069.18, showing the best prediction effect compared with the susceptible infectious susceptible (SIS) model and the SEIR model. In contrary to the standard particle swarm optimization (SPSO) and linear weighted particle swarm optimization (LPSO), which were two classical improved PSO algorithms, the reliability and diversity of the SEIR-PSO model were higher. In summary, the SEIR-PSO model showed excellent performance in predicting the time series of COVID-19 epidemic data, and showed reliable application value for the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic.