Covid-19 Infection in India: A Comparative Analysis of the Second Wave with the First Wave.

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is considered as the most dreaded disease that has spread all over the world in the recent past. Despite its outbreak in December 2019-January 2020, a few continents and countries such as India started to experience a significant number of COVID-19-positive cases from March 2020. GISAID clade variation analysis in the period March 2020-February 2021 (period I) and March 2021-first week of April 2021 (period II) showed a rapid variation of SARS-CoV-2 in all continents and India over time. Studying the relationship of patient age or gender with viral clades in these two periods revealed that the population under 10 years of age was the least affected, whereas the 11-60-year-old population was the most affected, irrespective of patient gender and ethnicity. In the first wave, India registered quite a low number of COVID-19-positive cases/million people, but the scenario unexpectedly changed in the second wave, when even over 400,000 confirmed cases/day were reported. Lineage analysis in India showed the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, i.e., B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2, during April-May 2021, which might be one of the key reasons for the sudden upsurge of confirmed cases/day. Furthermore, the emergence of the new variants contributed to the shift in infection spread by the G clade of SARS-CoV-2 from 46% in period II to 82.34% by the end of May 2021. Along with the management of the emergence of new variants, few factors viz., lockdown and vaccination were also accountable for controlling the upsurge of new COVID-19 cases throughout the country. Collectively, a comparative analysis of the scenario of the first wave with that of the second wave would suggest policymakers the way to prepare for better management of COVID-19 recurrence or its severity in India and other countries.