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Evaluating the mitigation strategies of COVID-19 by the application of the CO2 emission data through high-resolution agent-based computational experiments.
Chen, Hailiang; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Ai, Chuan; Zhao, Yong; He, Cheng; He, Ming; Chen, Bin.
  • Chen H; College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China. Electronic address: chenhailiang@nudt.edu.cn.
  • Zhu Z; College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China; Research Group of Multi-scale Networked Systems, Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam (UvA), Science Park 904, 1096 XH, Amsterdam,
  • Ai C; College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China. Electronic address: rogeraichuan@gmail.com.
  • Zhao Y; College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China. Electronic address: zhaoyong15@nudt.edu.cn.
  • He C; Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Fudan University, 200082, 2005 Songhu Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai City, China. Electronic address: 17110740005@fudan.edu.cn.
  • He M; Command and Control Engineering College, Peoples Liberation Army Engineering University, 210001, 1 Haifu Lane, Qinhuai District, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China. Electronic address: paper_review@126.com.
  • Chen B; College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China. Electronic address: nudtcb9372@gmail.com.
Environ Res ; 204(Pt B): 112077, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1433209
ABSTRACT
The negative consequences, such as healthy and environmental issues, brought by rapid urbanization and interactive human activities result in increasing social uncertainties, unreliable predictions, and poor management decisions. For instance, the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) occurred in 2019 has been plaguing many countries. Aiming at controlling the spread of COVID-19, countries around the world have adopted various mitigation and suppression strategies. However, how to comprehensively eva luate different mitigation strategies remains unexplored. To this end, based on the Artificial societies, Computational experiments, Parallel execution (ACP) approach, we proposed a system model, which clarifies the process to collect the necessary data and conduct large-scale computational experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of different mitigation strategies. Specifically, we established an artificial society of Wuhan city through geo-environment modeling, population modeling, contact behavior modeling, disease spread modeling and mitigation strategy modeling. Moreover, we established an evaluation model in terms of the control effects and economic costs of the mitigation strategy. With respect to the control effects, it is directly reflected by indicators such as the cumulative number of diseases and deaths, while the relationship between mitigation strategies and economic costs is built based on the CO2 emission. Finally, large-scale simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the mitigation strategies of six countries. The results reveal that the more strict mitigation strategies achieve better control effects and less economic costs.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Environ Res Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Environ Res Year: 2022 Document Type: Article