Development of a model-inference system for estimating epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 5573, 2021 09 22.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1434106
ABSTRACT
To support COVID-19 pandemic planning, we develop a model-inference system to estimate epidemiological properties of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern using case and mortality data while accounting for under-ascertainment, disease seasonality, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mass-vaccination. Applying this system to study three variants of concern, we estimate that B.1.1.7 has a 46.6% (95% CI 32.3-54.6%) transmissibility increase but nominal immune escape from protection induced by prior wild-type infection; B.1.351 has a 32.4% (95% CI 14.6-48.0%) transmissibility increase and 61.3% (95% CI 42.6-85.8%) immune escape; and P.1 has a 43.3% (95% CI 30.3-65.3%) transmissibility increase and 52.5% (95% CI 0-75.8%) immune escape. Model simulations indicate that B.1.351 and P.1 could outcompete B.1.1.7 and lead to increased infections. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing the spread of variants of concern, via continued preventive measures, prompt mass-vaccination, continued vaccine efficacy monitoring, and possible updating of vaccine formulations to ensure high efficacy.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Middle aged
/
Young adult
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
/
North America
/
South America
/
Brazil
/
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-25913-9
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