A farewell to R: time-series models for tracking and forecasting epidemics.
J R Soc Interface
; 18(182): 20210179, 2021 09.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1441850
ABSTRACT
The time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a key metric used by epidemiologists to assess the current state of an outbreak of an infectious disease. This quantity is usually estimated using time-series observations on new infections combined with assumptions about the distribution of the serial interval of transmissions. Bayesian methods are often used with the new cases data smoothed using a simple, but to some extent arbitrary, moving average. This paper describes a new class of time-series models, estimated by classical statistical methods, for tracking and forecasting the growth rate of new cases and deaths. Very few assumptions are needed and those that are made can be tested. Estimates of Rt, together with their standard deviations, are obtained as a by-product.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
J R Soc Interface
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rsif.2021.0179
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