A novel deep interval type-2 fuzzy LSTM (DIT2FLSTM) model applied to COVID-19 pandemic time-series prediction.
J Biomed Inform
; 123: 103920, 2021 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1446796
ABSTRACT
Currently, the novel COVID-19 coronavirus has been widely spread as a global pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has a major influence on human life, healthcare systems, and the economy. There are a large number of methods available for predicting the incidence of the virus. A complex and non-stationary problem such as the COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by high levels of uncertainty in its behavior during the pandemic time. The fuzzy logic, especially Type-2 Fuzzy Logic, is a robust and capable model to cope with high-order uncertainties associated with non-stationary time-dependent features. The main objective of the current study is to present a novel Deep Interval Type-2 Fuzzy LSTM (DIT2FLSTM) model for prediction of the COVID-19 incidence, including new cases, recovery cases, and mortality rate in both short and long time series. The proposed model was evaluated on real datasets produced by the world health organization (WHO) on top highly risked countries, including the USA, Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, Spain, Italy, Iran, Germany, and the U.K. The results confirm the superiority of the DIT2FLSTM model with an average area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 96% and a 95% confidence interval of [92-97] % in the short-term and long-term. The DIT2FLSTM was applied to a well-known standard benchmark, the Mackey-Glass time-series, to show the robustness and proficiency of the proposed model in uncertain and chaotic time series problems. The results were evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation technique and statistically validated through the t-test method. The proposed DIT2FLSTM model is promising for the prediction of complex problems such as the COVID-19 pandemic and making strategic prevention decisions to save more lives.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Brazil
Language:
English
Journal:
J Biomed Inform
Journal subject:
Medical Informatics
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.jbi.2021.103920
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