Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 5730, 2021 09 30.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1447303
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Immune Evasion
/
Pandemics
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Biological
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
/
Young adult
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-25915-7
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