Vaccination and testing of the border workforce for COVID-19 and risk of community outbreaks: a modelling study.
R Soc Open Sci
; 8(9): 210686, 2021 Sep.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1447702
ABSTRACT
Throughout 2020 and the first part of 2021, Australia and New Zealand have followed a COVID-19 elimination strategy. Both countries require overseas arrivals to quarantine in government-managed facilities at the border. In both countries, community outbreaks of COVID-19 have been started via infection of a border worker. This workforce is rightly being prioritized for vaccination. However, although vaccines are highly effective in preventing disease, their effectiveness in preventing infection with and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is less certain. There is a danger that vaccination could prevent symptoms of COVID-19 but not prevent transmission. Here, we use a stochastic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and testing to investigate the effect that vaccination of border workers has on the risk of an outbreak in an unvaccinated community. We simulate the model starting with a single infected border worker and measure the number of people who are infected before the first case is detected by testing. We show that if a vaccine reduces transmission by 50%, vaccination of border workers increases the risk of a major outbreak from around 7% per seed case to around 9% per seed case. The lower the vaccine effectiveness against transmission, the higher the risk. The increase in risk as a result of vaccination can be mitigated by increasing the frequency of routine testing for high-exposure vaccinated groups.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Vaccines
Language:
English
Journal:
R Soc Open Sci
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rsos.210686
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