Basic Reproduction Number of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in the Major Endemic Areas of China: A Latent Profile Analysis.
Front Public Health
; 9: 575315, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1448817
ABSTRACT
Objective:
The aim of this study is to analyze the latent class of basic reproduction number (R0) trends of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the major endemic areas of China.Methods:
The provinces that reported more than 500 cases of COVID-19 till February 18, 2020 were selected as the major endemic areas. The Verhulst model was used to fit the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases. The R0 of COVID-19 was calculated using the parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID-19. The latent class of R0 was analyzed using the latent profile analysis (LPA) model.Results:
The median R0 calculated from the SARS and COVID-19 parameters were 1.84-3.18 and 1.74-2.91, respectively. The R0 calculated from the SARS parameters was greater than that calculated from the COVID-19 parameters (Z = -4.782 to -4.623, p < 0.01). Both R0 can be divided into three latent classes. The initial value of R0 in class 1 (Shandong Province, Sichuan Province, and Chongqing Municipality) was relatively low and decreased slowly. The initial value of R0 in class 2 (Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province, and Jiangsu Province) was relatively high and decreased rapidly. Moreover, the initial R0 value of class 3 (Hubei Province) was in the range between that of classes 1 and 2, but the higher R0 level lasted longer and decreased slowly.Conclusion:
The results indicated that the overall R0 trend is decreased with the strengthening of comprehensive prevention and control measures of China for COVID-19, however, there are regional differences.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Front Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fpubh.2021.575315
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