Baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets

ABSTRACT

This baseline update uses 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates included in USDA's August 2020 Crop Production report with a modest adjustment to Iowa corn yield to reflect derecho storm effect. The economy is assumed to evolve as forecast by IHS Markit in July 2020 with a sharp rebound in GDP growth rates but a multi-year path to achieve forecast pre-COVID levels. A few highlighted results are (1) corn-planted area in 2020 is projected to be 92.0 million acres;(2)widespread shelter-at-home orders as a result of COVID-19 sharply reduced motor gasoline demand and with it domestic ethanol demand;(3) projected soybean-planted area rose to 83.8 million acres in 2020/21, up sharply from last year's weather impacted planting season;(4) wheat prices average about $4.80 per bushel over the next five years;and (5) supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 have increased the cost of processing livestock and dairy products.