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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe.
Sharma, Mrinank; Mindermann, Sören; Rogers-Smith, Charlie; Leech, Gavin; Snodin, Benedict; Ahuja, Janvi; Sandbrink, Jonas B; Monrad, Joshua Teperowski; Altman, George; Dhaliwal, Gurpreet; Finnveden, Lukas; Norman, Alexander John; Oehm, Sebastian B; Sandkühler, Julia Fabienne; Aitchison, Laurence; Gavenciak, Tomás; Mellan, Thomas; Kulveit, Jan; Chindelevitch, Leonid; Flaxman, Seth; Gal, Yarin; Mishra, Swapnil; Bhatt, Samir; Brauner, Jan Markus.
  • Sharma M; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. mrinank.sharma@eng.ox.ac.uk.
  • Mindermann S; Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. mrinank.sharma@eng.ox.ac.uk.
  • Rogers-Smith C; Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. mrinank.sharma@eng.ox.ac.uk.
  • Leech G; Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. soren.mindermann@cs.ox.ac.uk.
  • Snodin B; OATML Group (work done while at OATML as an external collaborator), Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Ahuja J; Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
  • Sandbrink JB; Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Monrad JT; Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Altman G; Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Dhaliwal G; Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Finnveden L; Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Norman AJ; Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Oehm SB; Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Sandkühler JF; Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
  • Aitchison L; Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK.
  • Gavenciak T; The Francis Crick Institute, London, UK.
  • Mellan T; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
  • Kulveit J; Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Chindelevitch L; Mathematical, Physical and Life Sciences (MPLS) Doctoral Training Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Flaxman S; Medical Research Council Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge, UK.
  • Gal Y; University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
  • Mishra S; University of Essen, Essen, Germany.
  • Bhatt S; Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
  • Brauner JM; Independent scholar, Prague, Czech Republic.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 5820, 2021 10 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1454762
ABSTRACT
European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe's second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours-such as distancing-which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe's third wave.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Government Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-26013-4

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Government Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-26013-4