Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Life expectancy and risk of death in 6791 communities in England from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data.
Rashid, Theo; Bennett, James E; Paciorek, Christopher J; Doyle, Yvonne; Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Flaxman, Seth; Fecht, Daniela; Toledano, Mireille B; Li, Guangquan; Daby, Hima I; Johnson, Eric; Davies, Bethan; Ezzati, Majid.
  • Rashid T; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Bennett JE; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Paciorek CJ; Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
  • Doyle Y; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Pearson-Stuttard J; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Flaxman S; Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Fecht D; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Toledano MB; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Mohn Centre for Children's Health and Wellbeing, School of Public Health, Imperial College
  • Li G; Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK.
  • Daby HI; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Johnson E; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Davies B; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Ezzati M; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London,
Lancet Public Health ; 6(11): e805-e816, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1467001
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

High-resolution data for how mortality and longevity have changed in England, UK are scarce. We aimed to estimate trends from 2002 to 2019 in life expectancy and probabilities of death at different ages for all 6791 middle-layer super output areas (MSOAs) in England.

METHODS:

We performed a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit research database using de-identified data for all deaths in England from 2002 to 2019, with information on age, sex, and MSOA of residence, and population counts by age, sex, and MSOA. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain estimates of age-specific death rates by sharing information across age groups, MSOAs, and years. We used life table methods to calculate life expectancy at birth and probabilities of death in different ages by sex and MSOA.

FINDINGS:

In 2002-06 and 2006-10, all but a few (0-1%) MSOAs had a life expectancy increase for female and male sexes. In 2010-14, female life expectancy decreased in 351 (5·2%) of 6791 MSOAs. By 2014-19, the number of MSOAs with declining life expectancy was 1270 (18·7%) for women and 784 (11·5%) for men. The life expectancy increase from 2002 to 2019 was smaller in MSOAs where life expectancy had been lower in 2002 (mostly northern urban MSOAs), and larger in MSOAs where life expectancy had been higher in 2002 (mostly MSOAs in and around London). As a result of these trends, the gap between the first and 99th percentiles of MSOA life expectancy for women increased from 10·7 years (95% credible interval 10·4-10·9) in 2002 to reach 14·2 years (13·9-14·5) in 2019, and for men increased from 11·5 years (11·3-11·7) in 2002 to 13·6 years (13·4-13·9) in 2019.

INTERPRETATION:

In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy declined in increasing numbers of communities in England. To ensure that this trend does not continue or worsen, there is a need for pro-equity economic and social policies, and greater investment in public health and health care throughout the entire country.

FUNDING:

Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and National Institutes of Health Research.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Life Expectancy / Mortality Type of study: Etiology study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials / Risk factors Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Lancet Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S2468-2667(21)00205-X

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Life Expectancy / Mortality Type of study: Etiology study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials / Risk factors Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Lancet Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S2468-2667(21)00205-X