Your browser doesn't support javascript.
A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries.
Sera, Francesco; Armstrong, Ben; Abbott, Sam; Meakin, Sophie; O'Reilly, Kathleen; von Borries, Rosa; Schneider, Rochelle; Royé, Dominic; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; Tobias, Aurelio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Gasparrini, Antonio; Lowe, Rachel.
  • Sera F; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. francesco.sera@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Armstrong B; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy. francesco.sera@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Abbott S; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Meakin S; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • O'Reilly K; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • von Borries R; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Schneider R; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Royé D; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Hashizume M; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Pascal M; Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany.
  • Tobias A; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Vicedo-Cabrera AM; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Gasparrini A; Department of Geography, CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
  • Lowe R; Department of Paediatric Infectious Disease, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 5968, 2021 10 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1467102
ABSTRACT
There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Meteorological Concepts Type of study: Diagnostic study / Prevalence study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials / Reviews / Risk factors Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-25914-8

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Meteorological Concepts Type of study: Diagnostic study / Prevalence study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials / Reviews / Risk factors Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-25914-8