Rapid incidence estimation from SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals decreased case detection in Europe during summer 2020.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 6009, 2021 10 14.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1469968
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
By October 2021, 230 million SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses have been reported. Yet, a considerable proportion of cases remains undetected. Here, we propose GInPipe, a method that rapidly reconstructs SARS-CoV-2 incidence profiles solely from publicly available, time-stamped viral genomes. We validate GInPipe against simulated outbreaks and elaborate phylodynamic analyses. Using available sequence data, we reconstruct incidence histories for Denmark, Scotland, Switzerland, and Victoria (Australia) and demonstrate, how to use the method to investigate the effects of changing testing policies on case ascertainment. Specifically, we find that under-reporting was highest during summer 2020 in Europe, coinciding with more liberal testing policies at times of low testing capacities. Due to the increased use of real-time sequencing, it is envisaged that GInPipe can complement established surveillance tools to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In post-pandemic times, when diagnostic efforts are decreasing, GInPipe may facilitate the detection of hidden infection dynamics.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Genome, Viral
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
/
Oceania
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-26267-y
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