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Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China
Wellcome Open Research ; 5, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1471171
ABSTRACT

Background:

As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide.

Methods:

We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries.

Results:

Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries.

Conclusions:

Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world. These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China. © 2021 Bhatia S et al.

Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Language: English Journal: Wellcome Open Research Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Language: English Journal: Wellcome Open Research Year: 2021 Document Type: Article