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Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong in early 2020.
Kwok, Wang-Chun; Wong, Chun-Ka; Ma, Ting-Fung; Ho, Ka-Wai; Fan, Louis Wai-Tong; Chan, King-Pui Florence; Chan, Samuel Shung-Kay; Tam, Terence Chi-Chun; Ho, Pak-Leung.
  • Kwok WC; Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
  • Wong CK; Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
  • Ma TF; Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA.
  • Ho KW; Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA.
  • Fan LW; Department of Mathematics, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA.
  • Chan KF; Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
  • Chan SS; Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
  • Tam TC; Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
  • Ho PL; Department of Microbiology and Centre for Infection, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China. plho@hku.hk.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 1878, 2021 10 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477403
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. However, there is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease.

OBJECTIVE:

To apply a metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with inspected migration to investigate the effect of border restriction as a public health measure to limit outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019.

METHODS:

We apply a modified metapopulation SEIR model with inspected migration with simulating population migration, and incorporating parameters such as efficiency of custom inspection in blocking infected travelers in the model. The population sizes were retrieved from government reports, while the number of COVID-19 patients were retrieved from Hong Kong Department of Health and China Centre for Disease Control (CDC) data. The R0 was obtained from previous clinical studies.

RESULTS:

Complete border closure can help to reduce the cumulative COVID-19 case number and mortality in Hong Kong by 13.99% and 13.98% respectively. To prevent full occupancy of isolation facilities in Hong Kong; effective public health measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 was necessary, apart from having complete border closure.

CONCLUSIONS:

Early complete travel restriction is effective in reducing cumulative cases and mortality. However, additional anti-COVID-19 measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 are necessary to prevent COVID-19 cases from overwhelming hospital isolation facilities.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-021-11889-0

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-021-11889-0