Effect of public health interventions during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Cyprus: a modelling study.
BMC Public Health
; 21(1): 1898, 2021 10 20.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477408
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Cyprus addressed the first wave of SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) by implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The aims of this study were a) to estimate epidemiological parameters of this wave including infection attack ratio, infection fatality ratio, and case ascertainment ratio, b) to assess the impact of public health interventions and examine what would have happened if those interventions had not been implemented.METHODS:
A dynamic, stochastic, individual-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model was developed to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression in the population of the Republic of Cyprus. The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use.RESULTS:
By May 8th, 2020, the infection attack ratio was 0.31% (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 0.15, 0.54%), the infection fatality ratio was 0.71% (95% CrI 0.44, 1.61%), and the case ascertainment ratio was 33.2% (95% CrI 19.7, 68.7%). If Cyprus had not implemented any public health measure, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed by April 14th. The interventions averted 715 (95% CrI 339, 1235) deaths. If Cyprus had only increased ICU beds, without any social distancing measure, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed by April 19th.CONCLUSIONS:
The decision of the Cypriot authorities to launch early NPIs limited the burden of the first wave of COVID-19. The findings of these analyses could help address the next waves of COVID-19 in Cyprus and other similar settings.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Public Health
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12889-021-11945-9
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