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Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy.
Ayala, Andrés; Villalobos Dintrans, Pablo; Elorrieta, Felipe; Castillo, Claudio; Vargas, Claudio; Maddaleno, Matilde.
  • Ayala A; Departamento de Matemática y Ciencia de la Computación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago 9170022, Chile.
  • Villalobos Dintrans P; Programa Centro Salud Pública, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago 9170022, Chile.
  • Elorrieta F; Departamento de Matemática y Ciencia de la Computación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago 9170022, Chile.
  • Castillo C; Programa Centro Salud Pública, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago 9170022, Chile.
  • Vargas C; Departamento de Matemática y Ciencia de la Computación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago 9170022, Chile.
  • Maddaleno M; Programa Centro Salud Pública, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago 9170022, Chile.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(21)2021 10 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1480745
ABSTRACT
The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method-based on weekly accumulated incidence rates-to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model's overall fit (adjusted R2). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Ijerph182111058

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Ijerph182111058