Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies
Wellcome Open Research
; 6, 2021.
Article
in English
| Scopus | ID: covidwho-1481209
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Background:
The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses.Methods:
Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion.Results:
We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies.Conclusions:
These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2. © 2021 Rees EM et al.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Scopus
Type of study:
Observational study
Language:
English
Journal:
Wellcome Open Research
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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