POST-PANDEMIC PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF THE AGRI-FOOD SECTOR OF ECUADOR TO 2035

ABSTRACT

Since the trade agreement signed with the European Union and the European Free Trade Association in 2018, the Ecuadorian government has prioritized the Global Exporter program Ecuador for the World with a prospective vision, with which it intended to empower the agri-food sector to place Ecuadorian products in new markets. However, the appearance of SARS CoV-2 / COVID-19 at the end of February 2020 detracted from the anticipation exercise carried out together with its scenarios. Consequently, the objective of this study is to identify the post pandemic scenarios with the highest relative probability of occurrence for the internationalization of the Ecuadorian agri-food sector by the year 2035. For this purpose, a methodological proposal was designed that integrates tools from the French Prospective School, original consultation instruments and statistical tests. Thus, the findings reflected that the scenario with the highest probability of occurrence is Number 03 (111101) with a percentage representation of 33%.