Export-induced loss in employment and earnings during the first year of the covid-19 pandemic identifying key industries in india

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unprecedented exogenous shock in the world economy unlike the global financial crisis in 2008, which was endogenously determined in the structure of capitalist financial market. Given the fact that Indian export sector significantly contributes to the Indian economy in general and employment in particular, it is worth examining how the Indian gross domestic product and exports changed in comparison with the world GDP and world exports respectively, in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 vis-à-vis the GFC in 2008. Which industries are affected the most, in terms of export loss, during this COVID-19 crisis? What have been the consequences of these falling export on employment and earnings in the Indian export sector? This study estimates that in the COVID-19 year 2020-21, Indian exports have fallen by 3.74 lakh crore, with a plausible loss of direct employment by 5.06 lakh and an estimated loss of earnings around 12.4 thousand crore across 85 commodities. © 2021 Economic and Political Weekly. All rights reserved.