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Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination.
Jayasundara, Pavithra; Peariasamy, Kalaiarasu M; Law, Kian Boon; Abd Rahim, Ku Nurhasni Ku; Lee, Sit Wai; Ghazali, Izzuna Mudla M; Abayawardana, Milinda; Le, Linh-Vi; Khalaf, Rukun K S; Razali, Karina; Le, Xuan; Chong, Zhuo Lin; McBryde, Emma S; Meehan, Michael T; Caldwell, Jamie M; Ragonnet, Romain; Trauer, James M.
  • Jayasundara P; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia. Electronic address: pavithra.jayasundara@monash.edu.
  • Peariasamy KM; Institute for Clinical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
  • Law KB; Institute for Clinical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
  • Abd Rahim KNK; Malaysian Health Technology Assessment Section, Medical Development Division, Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
  • Lee SW; Malaysian Health Technology Assessment Section, Medical Development Division, Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
  • Ghazali IMM; Malaysian Health Technology Assessment Section, Medical Development Division, Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
  • Abayawardana M; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia.
  • Le LV; World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Philippines.
  • Khalaf RKS; World Health Organization Representative Office to Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam and Singapore, Cyberjaya, Malaysia.
  • Razali K; World Health Organization Representative Office to Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam and Singapore, Cyberjaya, Malaysia.
  • Le X; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia.
  • Chong ZL; Institute for Public Health, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
  • McBryde ES; Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia.
  • Meehan MT; Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia.
  • Caldwell JM; Department of Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, HI, USA.
  • Ragonnet R; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia.
  • Trauer JM; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia.
Epidemics ; 37: 100517, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1482585
Preprint
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ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION:

As of 3rd June 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for the vaccination campaign to control the epidemic in Malaysia and four high-burden regions of interest, under various public health response scenarios.

METHODS:

A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model was developed that included two sequential incubation and infectious periods, with stratification by clinical state. The model was further stratified by age and incorporated population mobility to capture NPIs and micro-distancing (behaviour changes not captured through population mobility). Emerging variants of concern (VoC) were included as an additional strain competing with the existing wild-type strain. Several scenarios that included different vaccination strategies (i.e. vaccines that reduce disease severity and/or prevent infection, vaccination coverage) and mobility restrictions were implemented.

RESULTS:

The national model and the regional models all fit well to notification data but underestimated ICU occupancy and deaths in recent weeks, which may be attributable to increased severity of VoC or saturation of case detection. However, the true case detection proportion showed wide credible intervals, highlighting incomplete understanding of the true epidemic size. The scenario projections suggested that under current vaccination rates complete relaxation of all NPIs would trigger a major epidemic. The results emphasise the importance of micro-distancing, maintaining mobility restrictions during vaccination roll-out and accelerating the pace of vaccination for future control. Malaysia is particularly susceptible to a major COVID-19 resurgence resulting from its limited population immunity due to the country's historical success in maintaining control throughout much of 2020.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Epidemics Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Epidemics Year: 2021 Document Type: Article