Predictors of in-hospital Outcomes in Patients With Cirrhosis and Coronavirus Disease-2019.

ABSTRACT

Background: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases continue to increase globally. Poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and cirrhosis have been reported; predictors of outcome are unclear. The existing data is from the early part of the pandemic when variants of concern (VOC) were not reported. Aims: We aimed to assess the outcomes and predictors in patients with cirrhosis and COVID-19. We also compared the differences in outcomes between the first wave of pandemic and the second wave. Methods: In this retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database, data on consecutive cirrhosis patients (n = 221) admitted to the COVID-19 care facility of a tertiary care center in India were evaluated for presentation, the severity of liver disease, the severity of COVID-19, and outcomes. Results: The clinical presentation included 18 (8.1%) patients had compensated cirrhosis, 139 (62.9%) acute decompensation (AD), and 64 (29.0%) had an acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Patients with ACLF had more severe COVID-19 infection than those with compensated cirrhosis and AD (54.7% vs. 16.5% and 33.3%, P < 0.001). The overall mortality was 90 (40.7%), the highest among ACLF (72.0%). On multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were high leukocyte count, alkaline phosphatase, creatinine, child class, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and COVID-19 severity. The second wave had more cases of severe COVID-19 as compared to the first wave, with a similar MELD score and Child score. The overall mortality was similar between the two waves. Conclusion: Patients with COVID-19 and cirrhosis have high mortality (40%), particularly those with ACLF (72%). A higher leukocyte count, creatinine, alkaline phosphatase, Child class, and MELD score are predictors of mortality.