A chain binomial epidemic with asymptomatics motivated by COVID-19 modelling.
J Math Biol
; 83(5): 54, 2021 11 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1491092
ABSTRACT
Motivated by modelling epidemics like COVID-19, this paper proposes a generalized chain binomial process which integrates two types of infectives, those with symptoms and those without. Testing of infectives and vaccination of susceptibles are then incorporated as preventive protective measures. Our interest relates to the distribution of the state of the population at the end of infection and to the reproduction number [Formula see text] with the associated extinction condition. The method uses the construction of a family of martingales and a branching approximation for large populations, respectively. A more general branching process for epidemics is also constructed and studied. Finally, some results obtained are illustrated by numerical examples.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
J Math Biol
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S00285-021-01680-5
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