It's complicated: characterizing the time-varying relationship between cell phone mobility and COVID-19 spread in the US.
NPJ Digit Med
; 4(1): 152, 2021 Oct 27.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1493230
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Restricting in-person interactions is an important technique for limiting the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Although early research found strong associations between cell phone mobility and infection spread during the initial outbreaks in the United States, it is unclear whether this relationship persists across locations and time. We propose an interpretable statistical model to identify spatiotemporal variation in the association between mobility and infection rates. Using 1 year of US county-level data, we found that sharp drops in mobility often coincided with declining infection rates in the most populous counties in spring 2020. However, the association varied considerably in other locations and across time. Our findings are sensitive to model flexibility, as more restrictive models average over local effects and mask much of the spatiotemporal variation. We conclude that mobility does not appear to be a reliable leading indicator of infection rates, which may have important policy implications.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Language:
English
Journal:
NPJ Digit Med
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41746-021-00523-3
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