Estimating Exposure Risk to Guide Behaviour During the SARS-COV2 Pandemic.
Front Digit Health
; 3: 655745, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2303968
ABSTRACT
The end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 was a challenging time for many countries in Europe, as the combination of colder weather, holiday celebrations, and the emergence of more transmissible virus variants conspired to create a perfect storm for virus transmission across the continent. At the same time lockdowns appeared to be less effective than they were earlier in the pandemic. In this paper we argue that one contributing factor is that existing ways of communicating risk-case numbers, test positivity rates, hospitalisations etc.-are difficult for individuals to translate into a level of personal risk, thereby limiting the ability of individuals to properly calibrate their own behaviour. We propose an new more direct measure of personal risk, exposure risk, to estimate the likelihood that an individual will come into contact with an infected person, and we argue that it can play an important role, alongside more conventional statistics, to help translate complex epidemiological data into a simple measure to guide pandemic behaviour. We describe how exposure risk can be calculated using existing data and infection prediction models, and use it to evaluate and compare the exposure risk associated with 39 European countries.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Variants
Language:
English
Journal:
Front Digit Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fdgth.2021.655745
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